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The forecast for Russian GDP growth comes amid economic turbulence in the global economy.
The report by the World Bank was published in January 2013.
“Despite the projected high oil price, growth is expected to pick up only modestly to 3.8 per cent by 2015 reflecting monetary tightening, a tight labor market, and capacity constraints.
“The government will find it difficult to step up public investment in view of the large non-oil budget deficit.”
The report highlights unfavorable base effects, a drought in agriculture, rising inflation, and weak global sentiment, that contributed to a GDP decline of 3.5 per cent in 2012, down from 4.3 per cent in 2011.
In the meantime, the World Bank’s forecast cuts global growth in 2013 as austerity measures, high unemployment and low business confidence threaten the developed economies.
The World Bank projects the global economy to grow at a relatively weak 2.4 per cent in 2013, and “gradually strengthen to 3.1 and 3.3 per cent in 2014 and 2015.”
“While there have been substantial forces acting to slow the global economy in 2012, and many of these are expected to persist through 2013 and into 2014/15, there are also growing forces of recovery that should support prospects going forward.”
The forecast says global economy is on the recovery track, but the overall situation is quite “fragile and prone to disappointment.”