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The International Monetary Fund’s “World Economic Outlook” lowers the growth for Russian GDP in 2013 to 3.4 per cent from 3.7 per cent forecasted in January due to “deteriorating economic conditions in the region.”
However, the figure is still higher than the average growth worldwide which stands at 3.3 per cent.
The forecast for 2014 remained the same – Russian GDP will grow by 3.8 per cent.
The reassessment comes a week after Russia’s economic ministry cut its growth projections from 3.6 per cent to 2.4 per cent in 2013 and from 4.3 per cent to 3.7 per cent in 2014.
IMF also forecasts that commodity prices in 2013 will be lower by two per cent than in 2012 with the share of non-OPEC countries producing hydrocarbons growing.
It also said the export of Russian grain will grow given the good crop this year.
Overall, the IMF forecasts the depression of the global economy will last for another six months and only in 2014 it will it embark on the path of steady recovery, growing by at least four per cent.
Growth projections for United States and European Union were trimmed yesterday by the IMF: US will grow by 1.9 per cent, while the EU is expected to contract by 0.3 per cent.
The developing economies are projected to grow 5.3 per cent this year, less than the 5.5 per cent forecast in January.
“Fundamentally attractive prospects in emerging market economies, together with low interest rates in advanced economies, are likely to lead to continuing net capital inflows and exchange-rate pressure in many emerging market economies,” IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard wrote in a foreword to the report.
“This is a desirable process and part of the global rebalancing that must take place if the economy is to get back to health,” he added.
Another significant change in the forecast is the increased growth prospects in 2013 for five emerging ASEAN countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam; and a decrease in 2014.
According to the IMF these countries will benefit from the temporary slowdown of Chinese growth this year, and will see the reverse situation in 2014.