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India lowers growth forecast for 2015/16 to 7-7.5%
December 18, 2015, 11:48 am

In its mid-year economic review, the Finance Ministry said inflation has moderated and the rupee is stable, although exports have been hit with slowing demand for Indian goods in overseas markets [Xinhua]

In its mid-year economic review, the Finance Ministry said inflation has moderated and the rupee is stable, although exports have been hit with slowing demand for Indian goods in overseas markets [Xinhua]

Amid weak global demand and lower agricultural output, India slashed its full-year economic growth forecast on Friday, now pegged at 7-7.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2016. The figure was lowered from an estimate of 8.1-8.5 per cent forecast in February.

Indian stock markets fell on Friday after the government cut its growth forecast. The broader NSE Nifty ended 1.05 per cent lower after rising for four consecutive sessions. The benchmark BSE Sensex lost 1.1 per cent at close.

In its mid-year economic review, the Finance Ministry said inflation has moderated and the rupee is stable, although exports have been hit with slowing demand for Indian goods in overseas markets.

“Declining exports seem to be predominantly determined by a decline in the world demand. Regardless of the causes, the effect has been a drag on growth,” the Ministry report said.

Retail inflation, it said, is likely to be within the target of about 6 per cent.

It said the decline in nominal GDP growth will pose a challenge for meeting the fiscal deficit target of 3.9 per cent of GDP.

“Slower than anticipated nominal GDP growth will itself raise the deficit target by 0.2 per cent of GDP,” it said, adding that “the anticipated shortfall in disinvestment receipts, owing to adverse market conditions for a portfolio that largely comprises commodity stocks, will add to the challenge.”

While tax collections have been buoyant relative to the growth, “indirect taxes have fared better than direct taxes, probably because corporate profits have not been buoyant, reflecting the slowing nominal GDP growth,” it said.

India’s Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramaniam on Friday said “the economy is sending mixed signals”.

 

TBP and Agencies